VIGSAW
Updated just now • Refreshes every 30 min

Cross-market betting intelligence

Vigsaw runs a probability model that compares its win estimate against five betting markets — DraftKings, FanDuel, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Novig — every 30 minutes. Capper picks pulled in for cross-reference and CLV-tracked over time.
How to read this
What am I looking at?
Vigsaw runs a probability model that compares its win estimate against five betting markets every 30 minutes. When Vigsaw thinks one market has a side priced too cheap, that's an edge.
What's a TRADE chip?
Vigsaw thinks the listed price is meaningfully undervalued. A PASS means the price is roughly fair. Most calls are PASS — TRADE only fires on the strongest signals.
What's "edge"?
The gap between Vigsaw's win estimate and the market's price. We require at least 2.0% edge before flagging a TRADE.
What's CLV, and why does the leaderboard care?
Closing Line Value — did the betting line move toward a capper's pick after they bet it? If yes, they got a good number, and that's skill. If no, they got a bad number and ran on luck. Hit rate alone is noise.
/ The leaderboard
Cappers, graded by closing line value
Hit rate alone is luck. CLVi — did the line move toward this pick after they placed it — is skill.

Sharps — winning AND on good numbers

Lucky — winning, but on bad numbers

Fades — losing AND on bad numbers

/ Vigsaw's track record
How we've done
Calibration, hit rate by confidence band, and net return on TRADE-decision bets.
/ What we like tonight
Today's markets
Matchup Pick Vigsaw % i DK FD PM Kalshi Novig Best Price Vs Market i Action Bet Size i
/ Open bets
Open paper positions
Live paper bets, entry venue and price, current best price, unrealized P/L as % of bankroll.
/ What other cappers like
What the tracked cappers like today
Whether Vigsaw agrees is shown on the right — AGREE in green, FADE in orange.